Lots of things correlate with users upgrading, but artificially triggering the correlation doesn’t cause anything. If it did, fires would spontaneously break out near groups of firemen.
Intercom explains why chasing arbitrary metrics, even if the metrics are backed up by data, isn’t the way to build a sustainable business.
It’s important to understand that most metrics are really just indicators of user happiness. We often look for leading indicators, meaning things that users do, before they become customers. By finding out what drives users to become customers, we hope to get more users to take the plunge. However, it’s important to remember that users become customers because you solve their problem. Period. Not because of some metric that’s correlated with upgrades.
Also important to remember, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics”.